Arguments I have talked myself into, with the reasoning attached so you can find the hole in it. The shorter, half-finished ones are left off this page; they are still on whichever topic they belong to.

Go and look August 24, 2026
Almost everything we argue about has a number in it; almost every number we have is a proxy

What Makes a Good Politician? August 1, 2026
The one standard we can all agree on, and how our MPs score against it

Chords are shapes July 20, 2026
What an isomorphic keyboard makes visible about harmony

Why care about institutional design May 14, 2026
How institutions amplify human nature, for good and ill

A model of human nature May 14, 2026
Every political philosophy is a bet on it — and its width matters more than its centre

Designing behind the veil May 14, 2026
How to choose institutions when you don't know what people will want

Tradition and Change December 6, 2025
Why We Need Both Conservatism and Progressiveness

Beyond Earning to Give October 10, 2025
The EA Road to AI

The Unfair Lottery October 9, 2025
and the Duty to Spend Your Luck

What is Capitalism at its Core? October 1, 2025
A Steelman of the Four Beliefs That Shape Our World

Our Attention is a Multi-Billion Dollar Asset September 21, 2025
Who's Cashing In?

The Utility of Stories September 20, 2025
and the limits of our imagination

Global coordination problems via game theory July 24, 2025
Why AGI is not like climate change

The Clockwork Mind June 29, 2025
The strange paradox of free-will

The Offline Economy June 19, 2025
Why financial tools for the unconnected are a genuinely hard problem

Entropism June 18, 2025
The Universe's Burning Ambition

The Hammer and the Nuke June 16, 2025
Why AI Robustness is a Necessary Condition for AI Alignment

Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis true? May 28, 2025
Linearity, Non-Linearity, and a Confounding Conjunction

Intelligent Immunity May 27, 2025
What if intelligence evolved within the immune system?

The Alignment Problem May 23, 2025
Future AI Overlords vs. Present Corporate Greed

Money laundering and illicit financial flows May 20, 2025
The industry that facilitates the world's worst crimes

Affirmative Action's Simplistic Approach May 20, 2025
Using a 1-Dimensional Solution for a Multi-Dimensional Problem

Every Bias Names an Algorithm March 25, 2025
Bounded reasoners trade accuracy for efficiency in three places, and each trade leaves its own fingerprint

The cure for capitalism March 10, 2025
More capitalism

Luck vs skill in poker and life December 20, 2024
Why does poker have many rounds?

How can you prove anthopogenic global warming? September 25, 2020
An individual cannot.

What makes something true? August 18, 2020
How does deductive truth (ie math) relate to inductive truth (ie science)?