Minimality from uncertainty
How much of an action set should be foreclosed before you can learn?
The Geometry of Governance
Voting as a compression problem, and the right to be heard
A Decision-Theoretic Take on Social Choice
Using L2 to solve the preference dilution problem
The Bayesian Computation Wishlist
The fundamental operations that define the practice of Bayesian inference — and the one integral that stops us doing any of them.
A tutorial on Bayesian Belief Bellman equations
And Information Directed Sampling
The Stochastic Chain Rule
A Tutorial on Itô's Lemma
Committed to Fidelity
A Unified Model for Multi-Fidelity Bandits
The Price of Belief
Deriving Probability from Rationality
In what sense is Bayesian updating optimal?
Minimizing Surprise Leads to Bayes' Rule
Why are future rewards worth less than present rewards?
A Bayesian Derivation of Discounting
Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis true?
Linearity, Non-Linearity, and a Confounding Conjunction
Every Bias Names an Algorithm
Bounded reasoners trade accuracy for efficiency in three places, and each trade leaves its own fingerprint
Luck vs skill in poker and life
Why does poker have many rounds?
Typicality
In high dimensions, typical is unintuitive
Score functions, denoising and diffusion
Diffusion is just stacked denoising score matching!
Uncertainty and graphs
From uncertainty over constraints to uncertainty over graphs
Causal calculus
A connection between causal inference and gradients?
Visualising dataset alignment
Dataset alignment represented as tensor networks
Conserved complexity
A conservation law for algorithms?