How to hold a belief, how to change it, and how much a probability is really worth.

Minimality from uncertainty May 14, 2026
How much of an action set should be foreclosed before you can learn?

The Geometry of Governance January 3, 2026
Voting as a compression problem, and the right to be heard

A Decision-Theoretic Take on Social Choice September 23, 2025
Using L2 to solve the preference dilution problem

The Bayesian Computation Wishlist July 30, 2025
The fundamental operations that define the practice of Bayesian inference — and the one integral that stops us doing any of them.

A tutorial on Bayesian Belief Bellman equations July 29, 2025
And Information Directed Sampling

The Stochastic Chain Rule July 22, 2025
A Tutorial on Itô's Lemma

Committed to Fidelity July 3, 2025
A Unified Model for Multi-Fidelity Bandits

The Price of Belief June 27, 2025
Deriving Probability from Rationality

In what sense is Bayesian updating optimal? June 20, 2025
Minimizing Surprise Leads to Bayes' Rule

Why are future rewards worth less than present rewards? June 17, 2025
A Bayesian Derivation of Discounting

Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis true? May 28, 2025
Linearity, Non-Linearity, and a Confounding Conjunction

Every Bias Names an Algorithm March 25, 2025
Bounded reasoners trade accuracy for efficiency in three places, and each trade leaves its own fingerprint

Luck vs skill in poker and life December 20, 2024
Why does poker have many rounds?

Typicality August 10, 2024
In high dimensions, typical is unintuitive

Score functions, denoising and diffusion August 10, 2024
Diffusion is just stacked denoising score matching!

Uncertainty and graphs November 10, 2022
From uncertainty over constraints to uncertainty over graphs

Causal calculus August 10, 2018
A connection between causal inference and gradients?

Visualising dataset alignment February 10, 2018
Dataset alignment represented as tensor networks

Conserved complexity September 26, 2017
A conservation law for algorithms?